Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A key narrative of the EPL this campaign has been the reduction of scoring in open play and the way teams are netting increasingly from set-plays instead.
Looking at goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open-play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 fewer altogether.
Examining the bigger picture, efforts on goal teams are taking have seen a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than this time last season.
Even with the big increase in set-piece goals, records show only two additional shots created from these situations outside of penalties, showing the efficiency clubs are at devising strategies to score from dead-ball chances.
Scoring Rates Show the Tale
Over 300 goals notched in 110 matches so far works out at 2.74 goals per fixture, if this persists for the whole season might be the least for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
But just under 200 goals scored in open-play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the lowest for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76).
The 2009-10 season also marks the sole English top-flight season to see scoring more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).
What Clubs Are Most Responsible?
When it comes to goals scored from open-play, Wolves have recorded the largest decrease, netting just four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.
Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's decline in open play goals is largely a trend among London clubs, with five out of the city's seven teams recording at least five goals fewer from open play than last season.
To be fair, this is mainly because them netting numerous goals at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to find the net in open play this season.
Meanwhile City have recorded the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 goals so far arriving in open play.
Set-Play Proficiency
Comparing newly promoted sides with the relegated sides that they superseded. Sunderland Sunderland have scored three extra scores in open-play than Southampton achieved in matchday 11 en route to relegation last season.
When it comes to scoring from set-pieces (not counting penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the most significant jump, with each team replacing the five fewer goals that they've scored in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.
United have netted two times more goals from set-plays as they did in the first 11 matches last season prior to the manager took charge, while Sunderland again have been more successful at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.
Man City don't seem to have got the trend about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've scored three less than last season, like the Reds, although this could be because of the tactical shift they have tried to implement.
General Tendencies
Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – represent this term's primary examples by recording fewer scores from open play and increased from set-pieces, while Man City stand as the only side to go against the grain so far by performing the exact opposite.
It will be interesting to watch if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as matches continue or if they find again their overall inventiveness and start converting more goals in open-play also.